井底望天：人民币贬值
（井大，加入了就怎么消化了呢？）
加入之后会导致很多资产，转为持有人民币资产。这个包括各国央行至少1000亿美元的额度，再加上非央行的金融机构和其他企业个人。那么这个转持人民币的动作，会带来人民币的升值。这和人民币实际价值过高，需要下跌，这样就形成了一个对冲，那么可能就导致人民币保持原来价值，不会下跌。现在因为美国阻止，导致了这部分人民币需求没有了，那么按照市场情况，人民币下跌，是符合市场经济ABC的，呵呵。
市场经济，愿赌服输！
（人民币贬值会不会导致资本流出，进而带来资产价格下跌呢？）
很难说，因为你考虑全球是一个流动性比较好的市场，去年不少资金流入到美国房地产了。我这里有一个美国房地产协会的报告，找出来给大家看看：
Greetings from The Oberoi Team at INTERO
The world is getting smaller and the US is getting more global, each and every year. That’s a fact that all of us can observe routinely in our daily lives. At work, more and more of our friends come from another land, another culture. On vacation in a US resort, whether by the ocean, in the mountains or in the desert, you hear all kinds of languages being spoken. Same scene in an upscale shopping center. Look around you. The US, more than ever, is a microcosm of the entire world.
Not only is the foreigners’ share of the total dollar sales volume climbing steadily, but the lion’s share of their purchases tends to be at the high-end. That’s where it is most visible and where it has the most impact. As we said time and again in this column, these facts have a heck of a lot to do with many markets stabilizing, or even thriving, over the last three years.
As it does every year since 2009, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) conducted an online survey of roughly 200,000 Realtors, through the end of April 2015, to analyze with a magnifying glass the profile of international clients, whether non-resident foreigners or recent immigrants who have been in the country less than 2 years. I propose to give you here & now the main findings of this captivating NAR study. Be ready for a few surprises.
Over the 12 months referred to above, 209,000 houses have been bought by foreigners.
These transactions represent an aggregate dollar volume of $104Billion (13% more than the year before), about 8% of the total existing home sales in the US.
The average purchase price of international buyers, which stands at $500k, is nearly double that of a domestic buyer ($256k).
Out of the 172,850 Ultra-High Net-Worth Individuals (according to Knight Frank 2015 Wealth Report), 35% are from Europe (UK, Germany, France, Italy, etc.), 26% from North America (90% of them in the US) and 24.5% from Asia (China, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc.).
US real estate became significantly more expensive over the 12 months period due, in part, to the rising value of the dollar relative to other currencies. The dollar gained 30% on the euro, 19% on the Canadian dollar and 16.5% on the British pound.
Four countries (out of roughly 200 in this world) accounted for 47% of all purchases made by foreigners: China, Canada, India and Mexico.
For the 1st time, Chinese buyers exceeded all other international buyers, both in terms of unit sales and dollar volume, with $28.6Billion worth of property.
Following are Canada ($11.2B), India ($7.9B) and Mexico ($4.9B).
50% of the sales to foreigners were concentrated in 4 states: Florida (21%), California (16%), Texas (8%) and Arizona (5%). Proximity to the home country, relatives, job and educational opportunities & climate are the main reasons for the choice of location.
35% of the foreigners buying in Florida come from Latin America. 57% of those buying in California come from Asia. 41% of the international clients purchasing in Texas come from Latin America. 46% of those buying in Arizona come from Canada.
When you look at the average price of a 120 square meter condo (not houses) across the globe, it is obvious that US prices are very attractive compared to many other world cities. According to Global Property Resource, Paris did lead the pack of “most expensive cities” at $4,143,720 (based on a May 29 download of the global data).
In comparison, New York stands at $1,623,480, San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont at $622,400, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana at $375,800, Boston-Cambridge-Quincy at $331,000, New York-Wayne-White Plains at 270,100, Austin-Round Rock at $214,400, Chicago-Naperville-Joliet at $163,800 and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach at $149,900.
The bulk of sales to international clients are cash purchases (55%), compared to about a fourth of all sales of existing homes in the country.
Chinese buyers are clearly buying more than any other foreigners or domestic buyers at the high-end. The average home price for Chinese buyers is $831,800. This is to be compared to $455,600 from UK clients, $460,200 from Indian buyers, $380,300 from Canadians, and $274,800 from Mexican clients.
The volume of purchases from China (including Hong Kong & Taiwan), at $28.6Billions, is 4 times what it was only 4 years ago, in 2011.
The percentage of Realtors surveyed who reported working with international clients over the 12 months period increased by 7% over the previous year.
The market, yes, it is changing! Feel free to contact me at 408.771.4088 if you can think of anyone in your circle who could use my professional advice on buying/selling real estate. Also, please let me know if there is anything I can do to help you with your professional/personal goals.
Thanks for reading. -Eddie Oberoi
这个报告，是今年4月份的时候做的。就是在A股大跌之前，就是从去年4月份－今年4月份，这个1年中，中国人在美国买了286亿美元的房屋，是外国人排名第一，平均房价是83万美元。排第二的英国人，买的平均房价是45万美元。
那么你考虑资金外流的话，其实A股大跌之后，加上人民币贬值，那么美国的房地产应该更贵了。而中国的房地产，对国人还是对老外来说，都是便宜了。
但是考虑到，这个世界上，有聪明钱和傻钱之分。那么傻钱是高位站岗的，所以你可以看到聪明钱，其实是应该到中国来，傻钱才会去美国。所以要看这个对冲的结果了。
按照以前的数据，等真的美联储开始加息了，美元会走低。但是有加息预期，和刚开始加，美元会走高。
（井大，人民币贬值，全球股市都是绿的。）
正常啊。
（刚刚看了这篇文章：高善文：央行这下玩大了。作者似乎认为动汇率不太妥当，风险高。）
连这个贬值的动作都看不出来，还好意思给人家做顾问呢。贬值是意料之中，就是等SDR结果出来。
综合
１．【深化创新创业教育改革或纳入十三五规划】国务院副总理刘延东日前在深入推进高校创新创业教育改革座谈会上表示，要按照十八届五中全会的要求，把深化创新创业教育改革纳入“十三五”规划，作为加快推进高等教育综合改革的重要内容，整体 谋划、系统设计。各高校要结合实际制定具体方案，明确时间表和路线图。
２．【央行：加强改善监管避免征信逾越边界】中国人民银行行长助理杨子强表示，目前对征信业的一些监督思维和手段需要尽快转变，尤其是在个人征信权益保护方面。要进一步加强和改善监管，合理界定市场和政府的边界，避免过度创新逾越边界。
３．【李克强：支持中荷两国能源企业开展合作】国务院总理李克强会见荷兰国王威廉-亚历山大。李克强指出，中方愿同荷方推进现代农业、水利等重点领域合作，支持两国能源企业开展合作，并共同开拓第三方市场。
４．穆迪：如果美国国会未能提高美国政府法定债务上限，不意味着美国即将发生债务违约；提高债务上限的协议料将在政府融资手段用尽之前达成，如果不是的话则肯定会在11月 15日之前达成；万一不能达成协议，则整体政府支出将在2016财年平均削减11%。
５．【阿富汗印度巴基斯坦等国几乎同时发生7.6级地震】阿富汗、印度、巴基斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦等国26日几乎同时发生地震，喀布尔、新德里、伊斯兰堡、塔什干等城市均有明显震感。据美国地质勘探局消息，此次地震震级约为7.6级，震中在阿富汗费扎巴德东南 82公里处，震源深度为196公里。
行业
１．中国发改委：1-9月份全国铁路完成货运量25.3亿吨，同比下降11.4%；1-8月同比下降 10.9%。9月份全国铁路完成货运量2.7亿吨，同比下降15.6%；8月同比下降15.3%。
２．「国务院印发《关于促进快递业发展的若干意见》」国务院日前印发《关于促进快递业发展的若干意见》。这是国务院出台的第一部全面指导快递业发展的纲领性文件，提出了促进快递业发展的总体要求、重点任务和政策措施。
３．「教育部：适宜行业承担的职业教育职责交给行业组织」教育部副部长鲁昕26日在行业职业教育教学指导委员会工作视频会议上表示，各地教育行政部门要切实转变管理方式，创新工作机制，通过授权委托、购买服务等方式，把适宜行业承担的职业教育职责交给行业组织。
４．「交通运输部：出租车改革征求意见稿半月共收到各类意见3220件」交通运输部公布了出租汽车改革征求意见情况，据26日最新统计，自10日至25日，通过网站留言、电子邮件、信函和电话等多种渠道，共收到各类意见3220件。
５．「我国首台“永磁高铁”电机通过首轮线路试验“大考”」搭载着中车株洲电机公司研发的ＴＱ－600永磁同步牵引电机的中国首列“永磁高铁”，近日通过了整车首轮线路运行试验考核。这意味着我国高铁动力正发生革命性变化，成为世界上少数几个掌握“永磁高铁”牵引技术的国家。
６．【携程宣布与百度达成股权置换交易】携程旅行网今日宣布与百度达成一项股权置换交易。交易完成后，百度将拥有携程普通股可代表约25%的携程总投票权，携程将拥有约 45%的去哪儿总投票权。百度和携程还将在产品和服务领域开展商业合作。同时，百度将继续和去哪儿现有的商业合作。
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发表于 2015-10-27 07:30:49
