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姚尧:精读《股票作手回忆录》第4集

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发表于 2021-3-10 17:13:34 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
对赌行旗开得胜

  Well, I kept up my little memorandum book perhaps six months. Instead of leaving for home the moment I was through with my work, I'd jot down the figures I wanted and would study the changes, always looking for the repetitions and parallelisms of behaviour——learning to read the tape, although I was not aware of it at the time.

  【译文】

  就这样,我的备忘小本大概用了六个月。每天下班后,我没有立刻回家,而是快速记下我想要的数字,然后研究其中的变化规律。我通常会去挖掘那些反复出现和情况类似的走势——其实我这就是在学着解读行情,只不过我当时还没有意识到这一点。

  One day one of the office boys he was older than I came to me where I was eating my lunch and asked me on the quiet if I had any money.

  "Why do you want to know?" I said.

  "Well," he said, "I've got a dandy tip on Burlington. I'm going to play it if I can get somebody to go in with me."

  "How do you mean, play it?" I asked. To me the only people who played or could play tips were the customers old jiggers with oodles of dough. Why, it cost hundreds, even thousands of dollars, to get into the game. It was like owning your private carriage and having a coachman who wore a silk hat.

  "That's what I mean;play it!" he said. "How much you got?"

  "How much you need?"

  "Well, I can trade in five shares by putting up $5."

  "How are you going to play it?"

  "I'm going to buy all the Burlington the bucket shop will let me carry with the money I give him for margin,①" he said. "It's going up sure. It's like picking up money. We'll double ours in a jiffy."

  【译文】

  有一天,我正在吃午饭时,营业部一位比我年长的伙计找到我,悄声问我身上有没有钱。

  我说:“你问这个干嘛?”

  “是这样的,”他说:“我刚获得一条关于伯灵顿公司的绝佳内幕消息。我正准备找人跟我一起搞一把。”

  “你什么意思,搞一把?”我问他。在我看来,会搞内幕消息的,或者说有能力搞内幕消息的,都是客户中那些腰缠万贯的老犹太人。为什么呢?因为玩这种游戏是很费钱的,需要几百美元,甚至几千美元。它得是那种拥有私人马车,连马车夫都头戴丝绸礼帽的人,才能玩得起这种游戏。

  他说:“我就这意思,搞一把!”然后问我:“你有多少钱?”

  “你要多少钱?”

  “嗯,给我5美元的话,我就能交易5股。”

  “你准备怎么搞?”

  “我打算把这笔钱拿到对赌行去做保证金,满仓伯灵顿。他们让买多少,我就买多少。”他说,“这只股票肯定会涨,简直就像捡钱一样。我们很快就能翻倍的。”

  【姚注】

  ①bucket shop:对赌行。字面意思是水桶店,起源于十九世纪初的英国。当时,许多贫穷的年轻人会带个水桶前往酒吧,将客人离去后杯中尚未喝完的啤酒倒入桶中,然后聚集在废弃的商店里喝酒抽烟、赌博喧闹。后来,人们将这个词用来形容主要供散户投机用的对赌行。对于正规的证券经纪公司,客户买入股票后就是该股的股东,证券经纪公司赚取的是证券交易的佣金,客户的盈亏与公司无关。可是在bucket shop,客户买入的并非真实的股票,只是个持续波动的数字,靠数字波动的价差来赚钱。客户与公司是对手关系,客户亏的就是公司赚的,客户赚的就是公司亏的,故意译为对赌行,即客户与公司对赌。在对赌行里,客户可以使用少量资金作为保证金,进行高杠杆的投机交易。一旦做对方向,即可获取暴利,一旦做错方向,则将血本无归。由于杠杆是如此之高,以至于有时长线趋势正确,可一个极小的短线波动就足以让客户的保证金全部输光。显然,由于双方是对赌关系,对赌行出于自身的盈利考虑,必定会穷尽一切办法招揽更多客户,然后让客户多亏钱。

  "Hold on!" I said to him, and pulled out my little dope book.

  I wasn't interested in doubling my money, but in his saying that Burlington was going up. If it was, my note-book ought to show it. I looked. Sure enough, Burlington, according to my figuring, was acting as it usually did before it went up. I had never bought or sold anything in my life, and I never gambled with the other boys. But all I could see was that this was a grand chance to test the accuracy of my work, of my hobby. It struck me at once that if my dope didn't work in practice there was nothing in the theory of it to interest anybody. So I gave him all I had, and with our pooled resources he went to one of the nearby bucket shops and bought some Burlington. Two days later we cashed in. I made a profit of $3.12.

  【译文】

  “等一下。”我对他说,然后拿出了我的小记事本。

  我对自己的资金翻倍并无兴趣,我感兴趣的是他说伯灵顿的股价会涨。若真能如此,我的记事本是会有显示的。果然!按照我的测算,伯灵顿完全符合过去其股价即将上涨前的惯有表现。在此之前,我还没有买卖过任何股票,也从未和别的同事一起赌博。但在那一刻,我所想到的只是,这是个测试我的研究和爱好是否靠谱的绝佳机会。我当即意识到,如果我的分析记录无法运用于实战,那么我的这套理论也不会有人感兴趣。于是,我把我所有的钱都交给了他。他带着我们凑起来的这些钱,到附近的一家对赌行买了伯灵顿的股票。两天以后,我们卖出止盈,我赚了3.12美元。

  【姚论】

  对于伯灵顿公司的这次交易,利弗莫尔和他的同事都赚得大钱了。可是,利弗莫尔赚钱是建立在自己的操作系统上,同事赚钱却是建立在内幕消息上。操作系统是自己的,成功的经验可以总结,以便将来不断复制,不断赚钱;失败的教训可以反思,以便将来不再犯错,避免亏钱。可是,内幕消息却是别人的。这次有,下次不见得有;这次准,下次不见得准。更关键的,是这种模式既不能复制,更不能积累。倘若下一次再靠内幕赚钱了,交易者只会更加依赖内幕;倘若下一次靠内幕亏钱了,交易者也无法获得任何有意义的教训。俗话说:“失败是成功之母。”可这也要看是对谁。如果是因自己分析研究而导致的失败,如利弗莫尔这样,他便能通过更深入的反思总结来提高自己,以使得将来获得成功。如果是因别人提供内幕而导致的失败,如利弗莫尔的同事那样,将来又凭什么获得成功呢?这也正是利弗莫尔历经多次失败后最终能成长为大投机家,而绝大多数交易者虽然看似拥有丰富的市场经验,却也终究只能从一个失败走向另一个失败,而无法获得长期稳定的盈利模式的原因所在。

  After that first trade, I got to speculating on my own hook in the bucket shops. I'd go during my lunch hour and buy or sell it never made any difference to me. I was playing a system and not a favorite stock or backing opinions. All I knew was the arithmetic of it. As a matter of fact, mine was the ideal way to operate in a bucket shop, where all that a trader does is to bet on fluctuations as they are printed by the ticker on the tape.

  【译文】

  首战告捷之后,我便独自在对赌行进行投机。我会在每天吃午饭的时间去买卖股票,而对我来说,买和卖原本就没有什么不同。我是在操作一套系统,而不是某只心仪的股票,或者某种支持的观念。我所知道的,就只是数字的计算。事实上,我的这套操作系统在对赌行玩的顺风顺水。因为在这里,交易者所做的一切,就只是对报价机打印在纸带上的行情波动下注。

  It was not long before I was taking much more money out of the bucket shops than I was pulling down from my job in the brokerage office. So I gave up my position. My folks objected, but they couldn't say much when they saw what I was making. I was only a kid and office-boy wages were not very high. I did mighty well on my own hook.

  【译文】

  没过多久,我在对赌行赚到的钱就远远超出我在证券经纪公司的收入。于是,我辞掉了工作。家里人虽然反对,但当他们看到我赚来的钱时,也就无话可说了。当时我还是个孩子,在办公室做伙计的薪水很低,而自己做交易的收入却非常好。

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